Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?

Prediction market on manifold. Context: CNN | Arab states call on Hamas to disarm and relinquish power in unprecedented move YES resolution requires meaningful disarmament and relinquishing of power by Hamas, but it does not need to be purely voluntary or total. If most of Hamas leadership is removed (e.g. by Israeli force) and a remaining Hamas figure or spokesperson announces disarmament, that could count as YES — as long as the action appears substantive and credible. The disarmament must be real, not just symbolic — and should appear to satisfy the demands of Arab states who called for disarmament. I would likely wait 1–2 weeks after any such announcement, and look for on-the-ground signs that it’s genuine — e.g.: Surrender of weapons Ceasefire compliance Israel relaxing restrictions, allowing aid or journalist access, etc. Fringe militant holdouts (e.g. groups like PIJ or Jenin Brigades) do not disqualify a YES resolution, as long as Hamas itself is credibly disarmed and no longer in control. Update 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important clarification on succession scenarios: If Israel removes most of Hamas by force and a new group takes charge in Gaza, it would NOT count as YES even if the new group disarms - this would be considered a defeat of Hamas, not Hamas relinquishing power Exception: If the new group is essentially a reformed version of Hamas (e.g., "Hamas 2.0" or "new age Hamas" with mostly the same people who overthrow the original Hamas leadership), this could resolve YES Resolution requires a meaningful act of disarmament from Hamas as an organization, recognized by others as a voluntary relinquishment of control

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/31/2026.