Will any of the ideas discussed in this blog post contribute to significantly advance physics?

Prediction market on manifold. By July 10 2030 this blog post https://mariopasquato.substack.com/p/regression-discontinuity-and-chaotic or at least one paper or conference contribution clearly related to it (appearing after it and involving either me or one of my collaborators) will be widely regarded (in my judgment of the consensus of theoretical physicists) as a seminal contribution on par e.g. with how Everett’s many world interpretation of QM is regarded now? [link preview]

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/10/2030.