Before 2030, will we learn that a major discovery in physics had been made before 2023, but intentionally kept secret?
Prediction market on manifold. This will resolve true if e.g. a private organization / government / individual / etc. had made a discovery on the order of relativity / newton's laws / quantum, and kept it secret, until it's leaked / declassified / etc. The size of the discovery must be world-changing (especially as measured in new capabilities), it can't just be some constant measured to a higher accuracy or whatever.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.