What percentage of sought-after works will be discovered in the Herculaneum Library?
Prediction market on manifold. When the library is fully excavated, I will resolve this to the average percentage across options in the following multichoice market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MichaelWheatley/what-works-will-be-discovered-in-th)I will only average the scores of specific named works. I will use my judgement to exclude any options I think were submitted for the purposes of manipulating this market, and due to that subjectivity will not be trading in this market.
Liquidity: $180. Resolves: 1/1/2028.