Detroit LVT: Will the project discourage repurposing vacant land to green space? (2028)

Prediction market on manifold. Detroit is planning on an LVT project. It still has to pass a few legislative hurdles, but Mayor Duggan is pushing hard. You can read all about it here: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/05/detroit-wants-to-be-the-first-big-american-city-to-tax-land-value This market resolves N/A if the LVT project is not implemented by the expiration date. This market is one of a series of markets based on the very confident predictions found in the Marginal Revolution comments section on the subject (mostly, but not always, about how it will fail). I'm turning each of these into a market. (Group link for all these markets) Commenter Hazel Meade: In general this seems like it could plausibly be a beneficial idea, but I could also see how this might have some unintended consequences. It would discourage holding onto abandoned properties, but as a side effect also discourage repurposing vacant land to green space, say by enlarging lot sizes by annexing vacant lots, or turning vacant land over to community gardens. The city would probably end up in possession of more vacant land, but it's anyone's guess what they would do with it then. Two years after the project is implemented, this market resolves YES if the average rate of vacant land being repurposed to green space (either parks, community gardens, or etc) over that two year period, is less than it was in the two year period prior to the project being implemented.

Liquidity: $130. Resolves: 1/1/2029.