Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?
Prediction market on manifold. Resolves Yes if a Major Source confirms the samples brought back by Chang'e-6 suggest there are economically viable amounts of any rare earth elements. lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), lutetium (Lu), scandium (Sc), and yttrium (Y) Example of "major source" Agencies: NASA, CSA, ESA, ISRO, CNSA, JAXA Companies: SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galatic, Rocket Lab Publications: Nature, Science, Astronomy & Astrophysics, The Astrophysical Journal ETC: Any major news network/Government. Update 2026-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the close date arrives without a resolution answer, the close date will be extended rather than resolving NO.
Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 1/1/2027.