Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has. If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO. Otherwise, it will resolve YES. If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.

Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.