What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?

Prediction market on manifold. If someone publishes a counterexample Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves to that number. If someone publishes a proof of Collatz conjecture and the mathematical community accepts it, this market resolves #1. If this market doesn't resolve by the end of 2049, it resolves N/A. Apr 14, 12:08am: This was inspired by my Discord conversation with Gurkenglas about free-response market mechanisms. The point was to test / demonstrate a specific type of market failure with the current mechanism. Note: When I created this market the answers were numbered. #1 refers to the first answer submitted, in this case "Collatz conjecture is true".

Liquidity: $420. Resolves: 1/1/2050.