When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Prediction market on manifold. The description and resolution criteria correspond to those of the equivalent question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/

24h Volume: $12,334.576. Liquidity: $12,500. Resolves: 1/1/2046.