Will the Cuban government lose power before 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. Cuba has been governed by a one-party socialist political system since the Cuban Revolution, which brought Fidel Castro to power. The country is currently led by Miguel Díaz‑Canel, who became president in 2018 following the retirement of Raúl Castro. The 2019 [Constitution of Cuba](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Cuba_2019) formally defines Cuba as a socialist state.  Cuba has faced several periods of economic crisis and social unrest in recent years. As of 2026, Cuba is experiencing severe economic strain due to fuel shortages, blackouts, and inflation, which have [led to protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c875zd7de5xo) and renewed debate about the stability of the current political system.  External pressure also remains significant. The United States maintains a long-standing economic embargo against Cuba and continues to exert political pressure on the Cuban government. US President Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire for a change in Cuba's leadership. He said on March 9, 2026, that Cuba was in "deep trouble" and threatened a "friendly takeover."

Resolves: 1/1/2027.