Will Iran participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction market on metaculus. Iran was one of the [first non-host nations to qualify](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48079937/iran-2026-world-cup-play-happens) for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is scheduled to begin in June, with games to be played in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Iran has been placed in Group G and is scheduled to face New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt — with two group games at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, and a third at Lumen Field in Seattle. [On February 28](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/3/11/iran-cannot-participate-in-the-fifa-world-cup-sports-minister-says), 2026, the United States and Israel launched what Trump described as "major combat operations" against Iran, killing, among others, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's sports minister Ahmad Donyamali was unambiguous in his response: "*Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup. … Our children are not safe and, fundamentally, such conditions for participation do not exist.*" FIFA president Gianni Infantino met with President Trump, after which, on March 11, [he stated that](https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/iran-at-the-2026-world-cup-what-happens-next/) "*President Trump reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States.*" FIFA's position has been to "monitor" the situation, with [sources](https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48174709/world-cup-2026-iran-iraq-travel-playoff-infantino-trump-fifa-explainer) indicating no formal decision is required at this stage. Subsequently, on March 12, Trump said that it would not be appropriate for Iran to participate and that they should not [for their own safety](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/trump-says-iran-shouldn-t-play-in-world-cup-for-their-safety?embedded-checkout=true).

Resolves: 6/15/2026.