Will the UK, EU, and EFTA countries award €10bn in incentives for non-petroleum chemical production in any year before 2036?

Prediction market on metaculus. Non-petroleum chemicals are chemicals produced from biomass, recycled waste, captured CO2, electrolytic hydrogen, and other methods that do not rely upon petroleum as the primary raw material. During the 1800s, coal-based chemicals were widely used for dyes, explosives, and pharmaceuticals. With the advent of widespread petroleum refining during the 20th century, [petrochemicals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical) have come to dominate global production. [Widely used](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/chemicals-and-specialty-materials/chemical-industry-outlook.html) for agriculture, textiles, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and many personal items, petrochemical production requires [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52434-y) carbon emissions and relies upon a limited supply of fossil fuels. In recent years, and although still far smaller in scale than petrochemicals, non-petroleum chemicals have seen a significant rise in production, with governments implementing various financial incentives to reduce carbon emissions.

Resolves: 1/1/2036.