Will Anthropic overtake OpenAI in revenue in 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Anthropic and OpenAI are two of the leading AI model developers, seeing very rapid revenue growth driven by API sales, enterprise contracts, and subscriptions. As of January 2026, [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/) reported that OpenAI’s CFO said the company’s annualized revenue had surpassed \$20 billion in 2025. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-tops-25-billion-annualized-revenue-last-month-information-reports-2026-03-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) later reported that OpenAI had topped \$25 billion in annualized revenue as of February 2026, while Anthropic was at roughly \$9 billion in annualized revenue at that time. Separately, [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation?utm_source=chatgpt.com) announced in February 2026 that its own run-rate revenue had reached \$14 billion. [EpochAI forecasts](https://epoch.ai/data-insights/anthropic-openai-revenue#:~:text=Anthropic's%20annualized%20revenue%20has%20been,of%207%C3%97%20per%20year.https://epoch.ai/data-insights/anthropic-openai-revenue#:~:text=Anthropic's%20annualized%20revenue%20has%20been,of%207%C3%97%20per%20year.) that Anthropic could overtake OpenAI in annualized revenue by May 2026. 

Resolves: 1/31/2027.