Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before January 1, 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon) > The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire. Fast Company: [2026 will be the year Cybertruck dies](https://www.fastcompany.com/91475013/2026-will-be-the-year-cybertruck-dies) > The Tesla Cybertruck is the new [Ford Edsel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edsel), taking the crown from one of the biggest flops in American car history. > Last year, the Cybertruck spiraled into market irrelevance while the rest of the [EV](https://www.fastcompany.com/section/evs "EVs") market [found its footing](https://cleantechnica.com/2026/01/18/us-ev-sales-drop-2-in-2025-but-up-162-compared-to-2021/), as the pickup experienced the [single biggest sales collapse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-sales-fell-faster-184500341.html) of any electric vehicle in the United States. > Elon Musk’s [flailing company](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2026/01/tesla-sales-fell-by-9-percent-in-2025-its-second-yearly-decline/) managed to move only an estimated [20,237 Cybertrucks in 2025](https://evmagazine.com/news/can-teslas-cybertruck-recover-from-big-us-sales-slump). And that’s counting the units that Musk reportedly bought for himself through SpaceX and xAI to avoid further ridicule.

Resolves: 1/1/2027.