When will Google Release Gemma 4

Prediction market on manifold. When will Google release the next generation of its Gemma open-weight language model (e.g., Gemma 4 or any successor beyond Gemma 3)? Counts as release: Official public release (weights or model download) by Google or DeepMind. Includes variants (e.g., Gemma 4 Mini, Gemma 4 1B, etc.) as long as they represent a new generation. Does not count: Minor updates or fine-tunes of existing Gemma 3 models. Internal or unreleased research papers without public model weights. Resolution rules: Thresholds are quarterly: “Before Jan 2026”, “Before Apr 2026”, “Before Jul 2026”, and so on. If the date passes with no qualifying release, that threshold resolves NO (e.g., “Before Jan 2026” resolves NO at the start of January 2026). When a qualifying Gemma 4 / successor model releases, all applicable thresholds up to that quarter resolve YES.

24h Volume: $5,914.737. Liquidity: $267. Resolves: 1/1/2028.