Will the risk of death during Artemis II reach 20%?

Prediction market on manifold. There are several markets asking whether any of the astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission will not survive it, but they currently seem a bit higher (1-in-20) than one might expect. To maybe squeeze more precision out of them, this market will resolve YES if, during or immediately after mission, an average of the largest such markets reaches a 20% chance of a death (either directly or implied). This must happen due to real mission events, not because of market manipulation (in my estimation). I will not bet on this market or any market that may count toward resolution. Feel free to post relevant markets in the comments. (https://manifold.markets/embed/ChuckBaggettChuckBaggettW/will-there-be-a-lethal-disaster-dur?r=TG9nYW5UdXJuZXI)

24h Volume: $2,761.274. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.