Artemis 2: Will a safety test or other failure prevent completion of HEO and prevent Orion from TLI(heading to the moon)

Prediction market on manifold. Market Context: Artemis 2 is essentially a 42-hour stress test before the real journey begins. Instead of heading straight to the Moon, the crew will circle Earth in a long, elliptical orbit specifically to see if the new life-support systems fail while they are still close enough to turn around. This creates a specific "danger zone" where any technical glitch or "infant mortality" of the hardware could trigger an immediate abort. Only after every system is verified 100% functional will the ship fire its engines for the Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI), finally committing the crew to a deep-space transit where a quick return is no longer an option. The Safety Loop: The first 42 hours are a "test drive" near Earth to catch any failures in oxygen, water, or power systems while an emergency landing is still possible. The Chance of Failure: Because this is the first crewed flight of the Orion capsule, there is a legitimate possibility that a minor mechanical issue—one that wouldn't be fatal near Earth—could force NASA to cancel the lunar leg of the trip. The Exit Ramp (TLI): The Trans-Lunar Injection is the "Go/No-Go" moment; it is the massive engine burn that provides the velocity needed to break Earth's gravity and head for the Moon. The Point of Commitment: Once TLI is complete, the crew is "locked in" to a 4-day trip out and a 4-day trip back, relying entirely on the ship's endurance with no way to shortcut the return. Resolution Criteria Resolves YES: If the mission is aborted during the 42-hour High Earth Orbit (HEO) checkout phase, or if a technical failure (e.g., ICPS engine failure, life support malfunction) prevents the TLI burn from occurring. Resolves NO: If NASA confirms the completion of the Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) maneuver and the Orion spacecraft enters its lunar coast trajectory. Resolves N/A: If the SLS rocket fails to reach its initial intended orbit (Launch Failure/LEO insertion failure). Resolves upon completion or failure of HEO with date pushed back in case of launch delay

24h Volume: $1,730.77. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 9/30/2026.