Will Polymarket "Holding Rewards" rate fall below 4% before 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. In 2025, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, [introduced Holding Rewards](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-lures-bettors-highest-4-204736721.html) to incentivize traders to maintain positions in long-dated, high-profile markets such as the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election and 2026 Midterms. These rewards [currently pay 4.00%](https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364459-holding-rewards#h_eb943299bf) annualized on the total position value of eligible holdings, funded directly from Polymarket's treasury. Without such incentives, rational traders would have little reason to lock up capital in markets that won't resolve for years when comparable or better risk-free returns are available elsewhere. The eligible markets are among Polymarket's most prominent, and keeping them liquid and well-priced is critical to the platform's credibility and media visibility. The reward rate is variable and subject to change at Polymarket's discretion. As of April 3, 2026, the 1-year U.S. Treasury bill yields approximately 3.72% on a bank discount basis, meaning Polymarket's 4.00% reward rate already exceeds the risk-free rate. If Treasury yields were to fall further, the gap between Polymarket's reward rate and the risk-free rate would widen, increasing the opportunity cost of maintaining the program. This dynamic creates financial pressure that could motivate Polymarket to reduce the reward rate.

Resolves: 1/2/2028.