Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?

Prediction market on metaculus. With rising geopolitical tensions, demonstrated anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) capabilities, threats from the use of Artificial Intelligence, and a growing human presence in orbit (projected \~30 simultaneous by 2030 and rising sharply with commercial stations and Artemis missions), there could be an increased chance of a human fatality in space from hostile action.  Equally, the psychological stresses of long-duration crews on private and governmental missions mean that armed conflict and criminal activity may rise and become a threat to human life. Throughout history, there have been deaths related to spaceflight from accidents and/or technical failures. To date there have been no deaths reported in space as a direct result of hostile action.

Resolves: 1/3/2036.