Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Prediction market on manifold. I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is. Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes. I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it. I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is. Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient. I may at my discretion take into consideration non‐public evidence I receive prior to market close. However, the purported identification itself must be public. If the market resolves YES, I will state whom I believe to be Satoshi. I will not bet on this market.

24h Volume: $1,207.762. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 10/24/2026.