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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026. Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting. If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question. I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).
24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.