Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. Protein-binders are proteins designed to [attach](https://docs.adaptyvbio.com/docs/experiment-types/binding) to a specific target molecule, often with high specificity and strength. They are generally used in biotechnology and medicine to block interactions, detect biomarkers, or deliver therapeutic effects. [AdaptyvBio](https://www.adaptyvbio.com/) is a biotechnology company focused on experimentally testing computationally generated protein designs. As of March 2026, the company has run 3 competitions in which submitted designs were screened and selectively tested for binding affinity.  The [most recent](https://www.adaptyvbio.com/blog/nipah-submissions/) competition focused on the Nipah Virus and received over 10k submissions. Of the 1026 designs experimentally tested, 99 designs were classified as binders indicating a [success rate](https://proteinbase.com/collections/nipah-binder-competition-results) of 9.6%.

Resolves: 1/1/2030.