Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Punchbowl News April 10, 2026: [It’s reconciliation 2.0 time](https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/recon-2-0-time/?utm_source=Sailthru\&utm_medium=email\&utm_campaign=4/11/26%20%20Readback\&utm_term=Readback%20Send%20List) > **Senate Republicans** need to pull off an [incredibly tricky attempt](https://link.punchbowl.news/click/45147544.2212/aHR0cHM6Ly9wdW5jaGJvd2wubmV3cy9hcnRpY2xlL2ZpbmFuY2UvZWNvbm9teS9yZWNvbi13cm9uZy8/67ab62f8cf3c4c9a3f03e016B3a99afed) to pass a reconciliation bill in the coming weeks so they can finally end the 55-day Department of Homeland Security shutdown. > **Their sprint** to unite around a party-line package funding ICE and CBP begins today. Senate Budget Committee Chair **Lindsey Graham** (R-S.C.) and Senate Majority Whip **John Barrasso** are going to the White House to plot out the reconciliation bill. > **The stakes.** President **Donald Trump** has gone hot and cold on the Senate’s plans to end the DHS shutdown. It’s going to be crucial that Republican leaders make sure the president sticks with the latest plan, which is to fund ICE and CBP for at least three years in a party-line reconciliation bill. Trump’s help would go a long way to getting the bill done and keeping it from ballooning into something too sprawling to pass. Currently, DHS employees are getting paid thanks to a Trump executive order. > **What comes next.** The Senate will return to Washington on Monday night, giving GOP leaders a chance to socialize and lock in reconciliation plans. > **Leaders of the** reconciliation effort will want to move extremely fast. Trump set a June 1 deadline for getting the bill to his desk. The Senate Republican leadership is aiming to put a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions on the floor by the end of April.

Resolves: 7/4/2026.