Will the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close above 30 on more than 5 trading days between April 20, 2026 and May 31, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)](http://cboe.com/tradable_products/vix) is the most widely tracked measure of expected near-term volatility in U.S. equity markets, derived from implied volatility of S\&P 500 options contracts. Often called the "fear gauge," it rises sharply during periods of geopolitical stress, financial shock, or sudden risk repricing. In normal conditions the VIX trades between 12 and 20; crossing 30 is considered a meaningful institutional stress threshold: volatility-targeting funds, risk-parity strategies, and options overlays that collectively manage trillions in assets respond systematically to sustained VIX readings above this level. As of mid-April 2026, the VIX stands near 17.94, having reached a year-to-date high of 35.75 during the acute phase of the U.S.–Iran escalation in early April. This question uses a threshold of more than 5 closing days above 30 — deliberately distinguishing a single-day spike (which may reflect a transient shock) from a sustained stress regime (which signals that markets are pricing in continued or renewed escalation rather than a return to diplomatic de-escalation). Conversely, a VIX that fails to cross 30 on more than 5 days through May 31 would suggest financial markets have absorbed the geopolitical shock and recalibrated toward a lower-risk baseline.

Resolves: 6/1/2026.