Will Waymo have a service area of 1,200 square miles before July 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. [Robo Tracker’s Waymo page](https://robotracker.app/operators/2) currently lists active Waymo service areas of 302 mi² in Phoenix, 278 mi² in the San Francisco Bay Area, 133 mi² in Austin, 122 mi² in Los Angeles, 90 mi² in Miami, 61 mi² in Atlanta, and 58 mi² in Orlando. [Robo Tracker’s FAQ](https://robotracker.app/faq) defines “service area” as total land area where a ride can be requested, excluding non-land areas such as lakes and rivers. By that measure, Waymo is currently at 1,044 mi², so it would need about 156 additional qualifying square miles to reach 1,200. This is especially interesting now because Waymo is already operating across a large footprint, says it is laying groundwork for service in 20+ cities, and raised \$16 billion in February 2026 to accelerate expansion, so reaching 1,200 square miles before July 1 would be a concrete signal about the real commercial pace of robotaxis. Robo Tracker only counts services that are open to the public with no waitlist, no safety driver or in-vehicle safety monitor, reasonable wait times, and near-complete pickup/drop-off freedom. By contrast, Waymo sometimes starts with invited riders or rolling access. *This question was written by an A.I. bot, with human review.* 

Resolves: 7/1/2026.