Will 1,000,000 unmanned ground vehicles be deployed by Russian or Ukrainian forces during a single calendar year before 2031?

Prediction market on metaculus. The Ukraine war has become the most important real-world testbed for robotics—first as a turning point in the use of drones in warfare, but more recently, Ukraine has accelerated ground robotics adoption dramatically, realizing over [21,000 missions in Q1 2026 alone](https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-ground-robots-troops-uncrewed-ground-vehicles-first-quarter-2026-4?utm_source=chatgpt.com) and planning to [acquire tens of thousands of ground robotic systems in 2026](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraine-wants-30000-ground-robotic-systems-to-fight-russia-bw-111525): > *“I think that next year the army will need around 30 thousand NRK. This is my subjective opinion, an approximate assessment, based on an understanding of losses and scaling”* > – Viktor Pavlov As a comparison point, the production of drones in Ukraine and Russia has grown extremely quickly—from a few thousand in 2022, to over 550 thousand (415 thousand for [Ukraine](https://agroreview.com/en/newsen/agripolicy/drone-production-ukraine-increased-million/) and 140 thousand for [Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-drone-supplies-russian-army-increase-tenfold-2024-2024-09-19/)) in 2023, to 3 million (1.5 million for each of [Ukraine](https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-made-up-over-96-of-uavs-military-used-in-2024-defense-minister-says/) and [Russia](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/27/russian-think-tank-reports-rapid-increase-in-drone-production-a89604)) in 2024, to [5 million combined](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russias-fpv-drone-campaign-in-ukraine-institutionalizes-intentional-civilian-harm-as-a-tool-of-war/) in 2025. Ukraine alone could now [build 8 million drones a year](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-can-produce-8-million-drones-annually-needs-investments-zelensky-says06-2025/). 

Resolves: 1/1/2031.