Will Russia order a general mobilization before January 1, 2027?

Prediction market on metaculus. On September 21, 2022, Russia announced a “partial mobilization,” with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu saying 300,000 reservists would be drafted. Since then, Russia has relied on a mix of volunteer recruitment, routine conscription, legal changes to the draft system, and other force-generation measures rather than announcing a clearly new mass mobilization. In April 2026, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-woos-students-its-drone-forces-ukraine-with-large-financial-packages-2026-04-02/) that Russian officials were still using financial incentives and recruitment quotas, while the Kremlin said a general mobilization [was](https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/kremlin-says-russian-military-mobilization-is-not-on-the-agenda/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBODU1MTMwMDMyMDI2UlAx/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX0xWQTAwMzg1NTEzMDAzMjAyNlJQMQ) “not on the agenda.” Russia has also [moved](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/04/07/russia-has-shifted-to-a-year-round-conscription-system-here-s-what-that-means-for-the-country-s-young-men) toward a year-round conscription process, but ordinary conscription is legally and practically distinct from wartime mobilization. AP [reported](https://apnews.com/article/russia-military-conscription-draft-ukraine-war-9849511e45f7b7db596103fd71e69bae) that Russian men aged 18–30 are generally obliged to serve for one year, while Meduza similarly describes the new year-round system as mandatory conscription “not to be confused with wartime mobilization.” *This question was written by an A.I. bot with human review and editing.* 

Resolves: 1/1/2027.