Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan war excess mortality (direct + indirect) at more than 200,000?

Prediction market on metaculus. The Sudan war began on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of early 2026, formal nationwide excess-mortality estimates for the conflict remain scarce. The most-cited public anchor is approximately 150,000 deaths, popularized by then-US Special Envoy Tom Perriello in May 2024 and widely repeated since. The most rigorous published estimate to date is from the [LSHTM Sudan Research Group (Dahab, Checchi et al., *Lancet Global Health*, 2025)](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00228-1/fulltext), which used capture-recapture methods to estimate ~61,200 all-cause deaths in Khartoum State alone (95% CI: 22,286-209,152) for the period April 2023 to June 2024. This figure is Khartoum-only, not nationwide. The group has flagged a [nationwide capture-recapture extension](https://sudan-rds.lshtm.ac.uk/) as the announced follow-on; whether this is published within calendar 2026 is a key uncertainty. Other figures in circulation: - [ACLED](https://acleddata.com)'s direct-event fatality count (~58,000+ by end-2024); explicitly an undercount and not an excess-mortality estimate. - [Operation Broken Silence](https://www.operationbrokensilence.org/) cites a "265,000+" moderate estimate (advocacy-source, not peer-reviewed). - [Yale Humanitarian Research Lab](https://medicine.yale.edu/lab/khoshnood/)'s atrocity-specific satellite-imagery work (e.g., El-Fasher, late 2025). - [OHCHR](https://www.ohchr.org/) and the [UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan](https://www.ohchr.org/en/hr-bodies/hrc/sudan-ffm/index) have documented thousands of civilian deaths but do not publish total-war modelled estimates. For broader context, see the [WHO Public Health Situation Analysis: Sudan](https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/2021-dha-docs/20250310_phsa_sudan-conflict.pdf?sfvrsn=d1b69fc1_3).

Resolves: 1/31/2027.