Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates [stated](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/) it was quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to the unprecedented energy crisis caused by [the Iran war](https://www.reuters.com/world/iran/). > In his first public comments since the announcement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters in ​a telephone interview that the decision was taken after examining the country's energy strategies. >   > He said the UAE had not discussed the issue with any other country. >   > "This ​is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production," ⁠Mazrouei said. >   > … >   > He also said the world would demand more energy, implying the UAE would be positioned to meet that need. >   > Oil prices on international markets [trimmed ​gains](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-no-end-iran-war-stand-off-seems-sight-2026-04-28/) following the UAE's announcement it would on May 1 leave OPEC and OPEC+, which brings together OPEC and allied producers. The UAE is one of the group's [biggest OPEC+ producers](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-is-opec-how-does-it-affect-oil-prices-2026-04-28/) and weakens ‌OPEC's control over global oil supplies. > OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Iraq, ‌Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia with the aims of coordinating petroleum policies and securing fair and stable prices. Today, it includes 12 countries, mainly from the Middle East. The UAE joined in 1967. >   > The UAE is the fourth producer to leave the group in recent years, and by far the biggest. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, quit the bloc at the start of 2024, citing disagreements over production levels. Ecuador quit ​OPEC in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.

Resolves: 9/2/2026.