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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco, 2600.HK)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is the second-largest single producer in China after Hongqiao. 2024 production rose 6.76% YoY to ~6 Mt, with a new 400 kt/yr Yunnan green smelter commissioned and further capacity adds announced. The 6.4 Mt strike for 2027 reflects continued moderate growth from the 2024 base; sits near the median plausible 2027 outcome. Resolution sources (priority order): Chalco annual results announcement (HKEx 2600 / SSE 601600) https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/tzzgxen/yjbgen/ Chalco quarterly performance updates https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/ International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2027): Alcoa Century EGA Hindalco Hongqiao Norsk Hydro Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2027): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Chalco CY2028
24h Volume: $2,005. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2028.