Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. China Hongqiao is the world's largest single primary aluminum producer. 2024 capacity was 6.46 Mt, with production close to capacity, after commissioning a new ~500 kt Shandong line in 2024. Constrained by China's national 45 Mt smelter capacity cap, growth is limited; the 6.4 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the run-rate without policy easing. Resolution sources (priority order): China Hongqiao Group annual results announcement (HKEx 1378) http://en.hongqiaochina.com/ China Hongqiao quarterly results presentations and HKEx filings https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0331/2025033101148.pdf International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2027) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2027): Alcoa Century Chalco EGA Hindalco Norsk Hydro Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2027): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Hongqiao CY2028

24h Volume: $3,051. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2028.