Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco, 2600.HK)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco). 2024 production ~6 Mt (+6.76% YoY); new Yunnan green smelter commissioned. The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 sits near 2027's run-rate; further commissioning announced for 2026–27 could lift 2028 above this strike, making this a probability-anchored at or slightly above 50%. Resolution sources (priority order): Chalco annual results announcement (HKEx 2600 / SSE 601600) https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/tzzgxen/yjbgen/ Chalco quarterly performance updates https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/ International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2028): Alcoa Century EGA Hindalco Hongqiao Norsk Hydro Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2028): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Chalco CY2027

24h Volume: $3,322.709. Liquidity: $15,000. Resolves: 5/31/2029.