Which party will win the Farrer by-election?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to the winner of the Farrer by-election, triggered by Sussan Ley's announcement of her retirement from politics after losing the Liberal leadership on 13 February 2026. The candidate who wins the most two-candidate-preferred votes will be declared the winner. Resolution will be determined by the official results published by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) at https://www.aec.gov.au/. If there is a need for a recount, this market will not resolve until the results of the recount are official. I (and only I) can and might add new answers, but a bet on "other" automatically includes any answers added after the bet. I will only add answers that look particularly promising. Close date is indicative only. I will try to resolve promptly after an official winner is declared by the AEC. I will not trade in this market.

24h Volume: $29,926.346. Liquidity: $650. Resolves: 1/1/2027.