Before August 1, 2026, will the government of Alberta officially announce a date for an independence referendum?

Prediction market on metaculus. Associated Press May 4, 2026: [Alberta separatist group says it has enough signatures to trigger referendum on leaving Canada](https://apnews.com/article/alberta-separation-canada-referendum-e93c247ccc2e5f0340a5490d88ab0da2) > Alberta separatists said Monday they have formally submitted almost 302,000 signatures to try to trigger a referendum on the province leaving [Canada](https://apnews.com/hub/canada). The group needed 178,000 signatures to [force the province](https://apnews.com/article/canada-alberta-referendum-separation-b3da116c6800347f82da5011ee29f8f3) to consider such a vote. The question of separation could go on a provincewide ballot as early as October, as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she would move forward if enough names are gathered and verified. Smith has said she personally does not support the oil-rich province leaving Canada. According to [Elections Alberta](https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/media/news-releases/citizen-initiative-petition-sylvestre/), the petition has been officially received but verification is on temporary hold pending a legal challenge from the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and the Blackfoot Confederacy.  If the referendum were to take place, a possible date could be October 19, 2026 according to [Stay Free Alberta](https://stayfreealberta.com/).  

Resolves: 8/1/2026.