Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. In early May 2026, WHO [reported](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON599) a cluster of hantavirus infections associated with the cruise ship [MV *Hondius*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Hondius_hantavirus_outbreak), with seven confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths. The vessel carried [147 passengers and crew](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON599), and illness onset among reported cases ranged from April 6 to April 28, 2026. WHO noted that hantavirus is usually acquired from infected rodents, but limited human-to-human transmission has previously been reported for Andes virus. Public health authorities in multiple countries began monitoring passengers and contacts after the outbreak.

Resolves: 8/1/2026.