Will England authorise the release of a GMM for non-human-medicine use before 2035?

Prediction market on metaculus. Genetically modified microorganisms (GMMs) are microbes that have had their genetic material altered to perform a specific task. Typically, they are used for pesticides, medicine, and in contained food production. In the United Kingdom, the release of GMMs into the environment is [heavily regulated](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/2443/contents), with candidates required to undergo extensive environmental risk assessments. Although the UK has historically authorized early field trials of genetically modified soil bacteria, further releases have been limited to their traditional uses. Since 1998, the regulation of GMMs has been devolved between England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, with the [Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/genetically-modified-organisms-applications-and-consents) advising releases.

Resolves: 12/31/2034.