Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre ([JTAC](https://www.mi5.gov.uk/about-us/joint-terrorism-analysis-centre)) is the United Kingdom’s independent authority for all-source terrorism assessment. JTAC is based within Military Intelligence, Section 5 ([MI5](https://www.mi5.gov.uk/about-us)), the UK's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency.  On April 30, 2026, [the JTAC raised the UK National Threat Level](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-national-threat-level-raised-to-severe) (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) from SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely, to SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely. > The increase in threat comes following the stabbing in Golders Green in North London, but it is not solely a result of that attack. The terrorist threat level in the UK has been rising for some time, driven by an increase in the broader Islamist and Extreme Right Wing terrorist threat from individuals and small groups based in the UK. >   > While the UK National Threat Level set independently by JTAC reflects the terrorist threat in the UK, it comes against a backdrop of increased state-linked physical threats which is encouraging acts of violence, including against the Jewish community. This is an independent, systematic, and rigorous process, based on the very latest intelligence and analysis of internal and external factors which drive the threat. In reaching an assessment on the appropriate threat level, a number of factors are considered including available intelligence, terrorist capability, terrorist intentions, and timescale.  Since 2006, information about the national threat level has been [published](https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threats-and-advice/terrorism-threat-levels). In July 2019 changes were made to the terrorism threat level system, to reflect the threat posed by all forms of terrorism, irrespective of ideology.

Resolves: 9/1/2026.