How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves to the total amount of credible commitments we receive by EOD AOE of May 15. From https://manifund.org/projects/falcon-fund: Manifund is launching a new animal welfare fund, led by regrantor Marcus Abramovitch. We make rapid (<1 week), early-stage ($25k–$150k) grants across animal welfare, with a particular interest in the intersection of animals and transformative AI. Reach out to marcus.s.abramovitch@gmail.com if you’d like to donate! Why AI x animals? Many EAs take seriously both the welfare of animals, and the possibility of short AI timelines. But EA funders currently consider these in isolation. AI safety grants mostly ignore potential outcomes for non-human beings. And animal welfare grants assume business-as-usual, that our world in 10 years mostly looks like the world today. We don’t expect this to be the case. One major goal of the fund will be to identify and create opportunities so that transformative AI secures good outcomes for animals. Some example projects we’d like to fund: Animal harm benchmarks. There are only a handful of animal harm benchmarks, none of which adopted by frontier labs. Other benchmarks that are well known and used (SWE bench, FrontierMath) came about through rising to the top of a marketplace of benchmarks. The same should happen with animal welfare benchmarks. Many benchmarks should be created, some by established ML engineers with the goal that one or two get traction to “hill-climb” on. Animal Welfare Constitutions: Recently, Claude’s constitution was published with a value of “Welfare of animals and of all sentient beings” when determining how to respond to a prompt. This is one line of an 84 page document from one frontier lab. There should be ready made versions of texts of various lengths for constitutions, system cards, etc. to improve model behaviours and considerations for animals. Watchdog organization: As AI begins to take effect across industries, there is a good chance the factory farming industry and others will start to use AI in ways beyond Precision Livestock Farming that will be important to get out ahead of. Keeping an eye on industry practices as well as effects on wild animals will be important to identify high-leverage, urgent interventions Animal welfare salience in AI labs: Assuming AI systems are going to have profound effects on the world, it is important for those shaping the technology to be aware of and care about issues related to animal welfare as they are developing a technology with potentially large lock-in effects (We also expect to place some bets on non-AI opportunities that are unusually strong.) Why rapid? One of the top complaints among grantees is the glacial pace of funding decisions. To a founder deciding to leave their job or making their first hire, a quick response can be make-or-break. In other domains, Tyler Cowen’s Fast Grants and Jueyan Zhang’s AISTOF show that multi-month-long reviews don’t have to be the default. In the for profit world, VCs similarly make decisions incredibly quickly. By having one directly responsible individual for this fund, we eschew the overheads in typical grantmaking. As a Manifund regrantor on AI safety, Marcus has turned around funding decisions <1 week; Manifund is able to wire funds in <3 days after that. We’re bringing this speed to the animal welfare space to serve early-stage orgs. Why Marcus? This fund represents a bet on Marcus’s taste and execution. He’s already funded many successful early-stage projects, and is fluent in both animal welfare as well as AI/AI safety issues. Marcus has been a hardcore earn-to-give EA. He's personally donated ~$1.5m, representing >60% of his lifetime earnings, primarily to animal welfare. He earned this money through poker, cryptocurrency/quant trading, prediction markets, and advising a family office. (He was, for a time until he quit, the #1 trader on Manifold by all-time profit.) Animal track record. Marcus has been an early backer of many projects that are now considered standout animal welfare charities, including: Shrimp Welfare Project — electrical stunner placements now spare ~3.3 billion shrimp/year Society for the Protection of Insects — state-level bans on insect factory farming Compassion Aligned Machine Learning — animal-welfare evals for frontier AI Animal Pain Research Institute — comparative genomics and welfare breeding to reduce pain AI safety regranting record. This highlights Marcus’s eye for talent and understanding of frontier AI development. From a $100k Manifund regranting budget in 2023, Marcus funded: Marius Hobbhahn, then starting Apollo Research Jesse Hoogland, then starting Timaeus Joseph Bloom, who went on to lead Whitebox Interp at UK AISI Lisa Thiergart, who went on to lead MIRI's technical governance team Marcus also nudged his friend Ege Erdil to start Mechanize, and offered them their first investment.

24h Volume: $2,947.338. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 4/25/2027.