How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

Prediction market on manifold. [image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst. If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours. Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST. Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding. Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

24h Volume: $998.546. Liquidity: $6,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.