When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?

Prediction market on manifold. Last May, Elon Musk announced that a new Raptor Engine version (referred to variably as Raptor 3, Raptor V3, or Raptor 3.0) achieved a record breaking 350 bar chamber pressure (and 269 tons of thrust) in a test fire; however we've heard very little about its development since and it's unclear if/when we'll see one in use This question asks when we'll actually see a major new engine version (of any type) be used on a Starship Answers will resolve YES once a Starship Super Heavy launch* occurs with at least one satisfactory** engine on the first or second stage *Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even if only slightly, under the power of its own thrust (an explosion on the pad does not count). **For an engine to be counted as satisfactory for the purposes of this question, it must not be referred to as a Raptor V2 (or V1) or as some variant of Raptor V2 (or V1). Examples of real or hypothetical engine versions that would resolve YES: Raptor 3, Raptor V3.5, Raptor 4.0, 1337, T-Rex, BE-4, Merlin Examples of real or hypothetical engine versions that would not resolve YES: Raptor V1, Raptor 2, Raptor 2.5, Raptor 1e, Raptor V2 Block 2 The dates will resolve NO as they are reached, unless a launch occurs with evidence of a possible but unconfirmed satisfactory engine in which case I'd wait for a while to see if any confirmed information comes out Answers may also resolve NO early if sufficiently certain The engine does not have to operate nominally, or even operate at all Dates use UTC As confirmed by SpaceX or a credible SpaceX employee, or if high confidence: by photographic evidence

24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $2,125. Resolves: 6/1/2026.