Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?

Prediction market on manifold. If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan. This market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election. Biden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai Update 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade alone would not count as an invasion for the purposes of this market. An invasion requires a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.

24h Volume: $5.011. Liquidity: $1,195. Resolves: 11/3/2026.