Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Prediction market on manifold. From a recent arXiv preprint, We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory. Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days. FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination. Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community. As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress. This question resolves to YES if the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the FrontierMath benchmark, as reported prior to midnight, January 1st 2027 Pacific Time, is above 80.0% for any AI model. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. Only the original FrontierMath benchmark will be considered for resolution, even if new tiers or problems are added to FrontierMath in the future I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count. This market was duplicated and modified from this excellent market by Matthew Barnett: @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o See also: @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-30-performance-o @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The benchmark refers to Tiers 1-3 only, not including Tier 4 (which was added after this market was created).

24h Volume: $812. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.