Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?

Prediction market on manifold. The close date will be extended until an AI model achieves a performance equal to or greater than 80%, on either FrontierMath by EpochAI (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath), or Humanity's Last Exam by safe.ai (https://lastexam.ai/). Resolution source for the Last Exam: This resolution will use https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam as its source, if it remains up to date at the end of 2025. Otherwise, I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating would not be considered valid. Resolution source for FrontierMath: EpochAI statements/information on their website. See also: @/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-nzPCsqZgPc @/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc @/Bayesian/will-o3s-score-on-the-last-exam-be @/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o--cash @/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ

24h Volume: $232.545. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.