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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party. There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
24h Volume: $8.796. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.