Will Lynas LAMP samarium oxide production exceed 5 tonnes Sm₂O₃ on June 30, 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Lynas Rare Earths' LAMP facility in Kuantan, Malaysia produced more than 5 tonnes of samarium oxide in the January–March 2026 quarter, as reported in the company's ASX quarterly activities report. Why this matters: On March 19, 2026, Lynas produced its first batch of samarium oxide — the first time samarium has been commercially separated outside China. Samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets outperform standard rare earth magnets in extreme heat and radiation, making them irreplaceable for precision weapons, MRI equipment, and aerospace motors. In 2025 the USGS concluded a samarium supply cutoff posed the largest single-commodity economic risk to the United States of any mineral. What quarter is measured? January–March 2026. Production began March 19, so this is the very first quarter of samarium output. Lynas reports quarterly production approximately 3–4 weeks after each quarter ends. This market settles June 30, 2026. YES if: Lynas's Q3 FY2026 activities report shows samarium oxide output ≥ 5 tonnes for January–March 2026 NO if: Output is below 5 tonnes, samarium is not separately disclosed (treat as 0), or the circuit is not operational Resolution sources (priority order): Lynas Rare Earths ASX:LYC quarterly activities report (lynasrareearths.com/investors) Lynas ASX quarterly cash flow activities report (ASX filing) Lynas half-year or annual results — operations section (confirmatory) Background Lynas commissioned its heavy rare earth separation circuit at LAMP in 2025, becoming the first non-Chinese producer of commercially separated dysprosium (May 2025), terbium (June 2025), and now samarium (March 19, 2026). The circuit has 1,500 t/year total throughput for the SEGH compound; samarium oxide is one fraction. China imposed export restrictions on these heavy rare earths in April 2025. Lynas has a 4-year $96M Pentagon supply agreement covering heavy rare earth oxides. Considerations Production just commenced (March 19, 2026) — this covers only a partial first quarter Lynas may report samarium bundled in total SEGH compound rather than as a separate line item SEGH circuit must balance Dy/Tb/Sm fractions — product mix trade-offs are possible

24h Volume: $1,707. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/30/2026.