What will happen successfully during Starship flight 12?

Prediction market on manifold. Starship flight 12 will be the first flight with the Block 3 configuration and the first from the second launch pad. Resolution criteria: Stage separation: The ship and booster must separate without immediately losing control. Booster catch: The booster must come to rest on the chopsticks without being destroyed. SECO: The ship must reach Second Engine Cutoff at approximately the correct trajectory without an engine-related failure causing loss of attitude control. Orbit: The ship's trajectory must have a perigee of at least 80 km. SECO must be successful. Payload deployment: All payloads must be released from the ship in the intended trajectory. The door does not have to successfully close to resolve YES. If any payloads are not deployed, this will resolve NO. If no payloads are planned to be deployed, this will resolve NO. In-space burn: An engine(s) must start and shutdown after SECO without causing loss of control. SpaceX confirmation may be used for resolution. Ship reentry: The ship must reenter the atmosphere intact and maintain attitude control down to at least 20 km. Ship soft splashdown: The ship must perform the "flip and burn" maneuver and come to a vertical near-stop above the ocean surface. Ship catch: The ship must come to rest on the chopsticks of any tower without being destroyed. Obviously, this is mutually exclusive with Ship soft splashdown. See also: What will happen successfully during Starship flight 9? What will happen successfully during Starship flight 11?

24h Volume: $762.526. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/1/2026.