Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one). See also: @/EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon

24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.