Will there be an extraordinary Scottish Parliament election due to failure to elect a First Minister?

Prediction market on manifold. There is a Scottish Parliament election scheduled on Thursday 7th May 2026. After the election, MSPs elect a First Minister. If they fail to do so within 28 days, a fresh election is called. This has never happened since the parliament's formation in 1999. Polls look likely that the SNP will be the largest party but well short of a majority. The last time this happened, in 2007, enough opposition parties abstained that allowed the SNP's candidate for First Minister to be elected. But today, politics is more polarised and the SNP have been in power for a long time. Will small parties be more resistant to letting the SNP sail through this time? I may bet in this market. No AI clarifications will be added.

24h Volume: $81.555. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/20/2026.