Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Prediction market on manifold. As indicated by the Organization of American States. Resolves YES if the OAS finds the election is generally free and fair. Resolves NO if the OAS finds the election to be not free or not fair. If OAS does not comment, I will use my judgement to resolve the market based on another observer, likely considering this list of high-quality election monitoring organizations. I'll wait up to two years from the date of the election to get time for comment from OAS. If the OAS issues a preliminary report with a clear finding, that will be sufficient to resolve the question. Brazil's election schedule is set down in the constitution, so any postponement of the election would be extraordinary. If elections are postponed by more than 6 months, this market will resolve NO, otherwise the question will continue to resolve as set down above. This market will resolve based on a judgement about both the congressional and presidential elections--both must be free and fair as described above for the market to resolve positively. I will not trade this market.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2027.