Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria xAI has already signed a contract under the all lawful purposes standard for classified work, while Claude is the only frontier AI model operating on classified Pentagon networks. This market resolves YES if xAI's Grok model becomes the (or one of the) AI system available for classified military operations, replacing Anthropic's Claude entirely. Resolution will be determined by official Department of War announcements or credible reporting from major news outlets (Axios, Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, CNN) confirming that Anthropic's Claude has been fully removed from classified military systems and xAI's Grok is an AI provider for those operations. The market resolves NO if Anthropic retains any active deployment on classified networks or xAI does not become an AI provider for these operations. Background The Pentagon and Anthropic are in a high-stakes feud over the limits Anthropic wants to place on the department's use of its AI model Claude: no mass surveillance or autonomous weapons. xAI has signed an agreement to allow its Grok model to be used in classified military systems, giving Grok access to systems used for some of the military's most sensitive intelligence analysis, weapons development and battlefield operations. It's not clear whether xAI will be able to fully replace Anthropic, or how long that process would take. Anthropic was awarded a $200 million contract by the Pentagon in July to develop AI capabilities that would advance U.S. national security. Considerations Only Claude is deployed on the classified networks used for actual sensitive operations, via Palantir. The company that refused to strip safety guardrails is the only one trusted with the most classified work. Full replacement would require either Anthropic's contract termination and complete system migration to Grok, or Anthropic's voluntary withdrawal from classified work—both uncertain outcomes given the technical complexity of transitioning existing operations and Anthropic's stated commitment to continuing negotiations. This description was generated by AI. UPDATE 2026-02-27 Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering changing the resolution criteria to require xAI to have a substantial role in classified military operations (rather than requiring Anthropic to be fully removed). The exact definition of "substantial" would remain somewhat vague.

24h Volume: $23. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.